ESPN.com - NFL - Take 2: Saints vs. RaidersFriday, October 22, 2004
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Saints and Raiders. Now they're back with a
second look.
With Saints CB Ashley Ambrose (knee) doubtful to play, the Raiders will
want to spread things out a little bit in order to exploit the Saints'
lack of depth at the cornerback position. Oakland obviously traded away
Jerry Rice (Seahawks) this week, but he wasn't getting much playing time
in coach Norv Turner's vertical passing scheme anyway because his lack of
deep speed made him a poor fit. Now that he's gone, the team will start
Jerry Porter and Doug Gabriel, with Ronald Curry, rookie Carlos Francis
and Alvis Whitted filling out the three- and four-receiver rotation.
McKenzieNewly acquired CB Mike McKenzie will start on the left side
opposite Porter and Fred Thomas will start on the right side opposite
Gabriel. While neither Porter nor Gabriel has played with great
consistency, if the Raiders can spread the Saints out and get one-on-one
matchups against McKenzie and Thomas, they should be able to exploit their
speed advantage with QB Kerry Collins' strong arm. Furthermore, the
Raiders will also look to get some one-on-one matchups with Curry, Francis
and Whitted working against FS Tebucky Jones and No. 4 CB Fakhir Brown.
The most frustrating aspect of Sunday's game for the Raiders will likely
be their inability to exploit the Saints' poor run defense. For starters,
the Saints, who have been giving up an average of 151.2 yards per game on
the ground this season, should continue to improve with McKenzie moving
into a starting role because his size and press coverage skills give him
the potential to smother receivers at the line of scrimmage, which will
allow the team to take more chances with the blitz and with SS Jay Bellamy
cheating up.
Secondly, the Raiders simply lack the personnel in the running game to
ravage the Saints' inconsistent and poor tackling unit as much as most
other teams have to this point. The Raiders' offensive line has done a
poor job of consistently getting out on the second level as run blockers
and Amos Zereoue has not shown the ability to create much on his own. With
starting RB Tyrone Wheatley out and reserve RB Justin Fargas questionable,
the Raiders lack the power runner and the depth to properly establish
Turner's power running attack.
One of the most important facets of this game is going to be the Saints'
pass rush. As previously mentioned, the Saints do not have the speed at
cornerback to turn and run with faster receivers like Porter and Gabriel.
McKenzie is good at smothering receivers at the line, but he doesn't have
the fluid hips or top-end speed to turn and run downfield with either of
those receivers and Thomas is too inconsistent to be left along too long
in coverage.
The Saints will take some chances with the blitz and will leave McKenzie
and Thomas alone on islands from time-to-time, which will create a "feast
or famine" scenario. If the blitz and the three-defensive end rotation of
DEs Charles Grant (eight sacks), Darren Howard (four sacks) and rookie
Will Smith (two sacks) can get to the immobile Collins before his
receivers can generate separation vertically, it will give the Saints a
big advantage. If not, the deep ball could ultimately be fatal for the New
Orleans defense.
The Saints' offense seemed to regain its confidence with a 31-point
outburst against the Vikings last Sunday night, and it'll need to carry
that momentum over into this game. RB Deuce McAllister's explosiveness and
versatility are the biggest reasons why the Saints match up well against
the Oakland defense. The Raiders have the skill at cornerback to play a
lot of man-to-man schemes against WRs Joe Horn, Donte' Stallworth and
Jerome Pathon.
However, their inconsistency up front in their 3-4 scheme and their
overall lack of athleticism at linebacker should lead to a productive
afternoon for McAllister. For starters, McAllister has the speed and
cutback ability to exploit the Raiders for overpursuing against the run,
much like RBs Mewelde Moore (Vikings) and Edgerrin James (Colts) have done
to this unit the past couple of games. McAllister also has the receiving
savvy and explosiveness after the catch to create mismatches against LILB
Danny Clark and ROLB Travian Smith. The only Raider linebacker who can
keep up with McAllister in coverage is RILB Napoleon Harris, so look for
the Saints to keep McAllister away from him as a route runner.
A key matchup to keep an eye on in the trenches is Saints OC
LeCharles Bentley versus Raiders NT Ted Washington. After starting off
slowly as a result of the transition from guard to center, Bentley has
begun to show a lot more consistency and is playing with a lot more
confidence the past few weeks. Bentley doesn't have great size (299
pounds) but he is bigger than most at his position and the former guard is
used to matching up head-to-head with massive defensive tackles at his
previous position.
If Bentley can use that experience and his impressive lower body strength
to hold his ground against Washington, who is at least 65 pounds bigger
than him, it will give the Saints a huge advantage in the running game. By
controlling Washington without help it would allow OGs Kendyl Jacos and
Montrae Holland to play an active role as second level blockers against
ILBs Harris and Clark. With McAllister's speed and ability to make quick
cutbacks, having two second-level blockers on a consistent basis could
lead to some big gains on the ground for the Saints.
Special Teams
Few organizations in the NFL have better personnel on special teams than
the Saints and Raiders. The Saints have gotten strong lay from their
veteran kickers Mitch Berger (PT) and John Carney (PK). Berger is
averaging 43.9 yards per punt and Carney has connected on 11 of 12 field
goal attempts. However, the Raiders are tough to compete with in terms of
their kicking tandem of Shane Lechler (PT) and Sebastian Janikowski (PK).
Lechler leads the NFL with an average of 49.3 yards per punt and
Janikowski is 9-of-11 on FGAs with a long of 50 yards.
While the Raiders have a sight edge in the kicking game because of the leg
strength of both Janikowski and Lechler, the Saints hold the advantage in
the return game because of the explosiveness of RS Michael Lewis. Lewis is
averaging a respectable 21.3 yards kickoff return, but is a threat to take
one the distance every time he touches the ball, and he has proven that
with his 10.4-yard average per punt return and long-kickoff return of 51
yards. The Raiders are solid with KORs Gabriel and Carlos Francis and PR
Phillip Buchanon, but none of the above is as consistent and threatening
as Lewis.
Prediction: Saints 23, Raiders 20
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Saints and Raiders. Now they're back with a
second look.
With Saints CB Ashley Ambrose (knee) doubtful to play, the Raiders will
want to spread things out a little bit in order to exploit the Saints'
lack of depth at the cornerback position. Oakland obviously traded away
Jerry Rice (Seahawks) this week, but he wasn't getting much playing time
in coach Norv Turner's vertical passing scheme anyway because his lack of
deep speed made him a poor fit. Now that he's gone, the team will start
Jerry Porter and Doug Gabriel, with Ronald Curry, rookie Carlos Francis
and Alvis Whitted filling out the three- and four-receiver rotation.
McKenzieNewly acquired CB Mike McKenzie will start on the left side
opposite Porter and Fred Thomas will start on the right side opposite
Gabriel. While neither Porter nor Gabriel has played with great
consistency, if the Raiders can spread the Saints out and get one-on-one
matchups against McKenzie and Thomas, they should be able to exploit their
speed advantage with QB Kerry Collins' strong arm. Furthermore, the
Raiders will also look to get some one-on-one matchups with Curry, Francis
and Whitted working against FS Tebucky Jones and No. 4 CB Fakhir Brown.
The most frustrating aspect of Sunday's game for the Raiders will likely
be their inability to exploit the Saints' poor run defense. For starters,
the Saints, who have been giving up an average of 151.2 yards per game on
the ground this season, should continue to improve with McKenzie moving
into a starting role because his size and press coverage skills give him
the potential to smother receivers at the line of scrimmage, which will
allow the team to take more chances with the blitz and with SS Jay Bellamy
cheating up.
Secondly, the Raiders simply lack the personnel in the running game to
ravage the Saints' inconsistent and poor tackling unit as much as most
other teams have to this point. The Raiders' offensive line has done a
poor job of consistently getting out on the second level as run blockers
and Amos Zereoue has not shown the ability to create much on his own. With
starting RB Tyrone Wheatley out and reserve RB Justin Fargas questionable,
the Raiders lack the power runner and the depth to properly establish
Turner's power running attack.
One of the most important facets of this game is going to be the Saints'
pass rush. As previously mentioned, the Saints do not have the speed at
cornerback to turn and run with faster receivers like Porter and Gabriel.
McKenzie is good at smothering receivers at the line, but he doesn't have
the fluid hips or top-end speed to turn and run downfield with either of
those receivers and Thomas is too inconsistent to be left along too long
in coverage.
The Saints will take some chances with the blitz and will leave McKenzie
and Thomas alone on islands from time-to-time, which will create a "feast
or famine" scenario. If the blitz and the three-defensive end rotation of
DEs Charles Grant (eight sacks), Darren Howard (four sacks) and rookie
Will Smith (two sacks) can get to the immobile Collins before his
receivers can generate separation vertically, it will give the Saints a
big advantage. If not, the deep ball could ultimately be fatal for the New
Orleans defense.
The Saints' offense seemed to regain its confidence with a 31-point
outburst against the Vikings last Sunday night, and it'll need to carry
that momentum over into this game. RB Deuce McAllister's explosiveness and
versatility are the biggest reasons why the Saints match up well against
the Oakland defense. The Raiders have the skill at cornerback to play a
lot of man-to-man schemes against WRs Joe Horn, Donte' Stallworth and
Jerome Pathon.
However, their inconsistency up front in their 3-4 scheme and their
overall lack of athleticism at linebacker should lead to a productive
afternoon for McAllister. For starters, McAllister has the speed and
cutback ability to exploit the Raiders for overpursuing against the run,
much like RBs Mewelde Moore (Vikings) and Edgerrin James (Colts) have done
to this unit the past couple of games. McAllister also has the receiving
savvy and explosiveness after the catch to create mismatches against LILB
Danny Clark and ROLB Travian Smith. The only Raider linebacker who can
keep up with McAllister in coverage is RILB Napoleon Harris, so look for
the Saints to keep McAllister away from him as a route runner.
A key matchup to keep an eye on in the trenches is Saints OC
LeCharles Bentley versus Raiders NT Ted Washington. After starting off
slowly as a result of the transition from guard to center, Bentley has
begun to show a lot more consistency and is playing with a lot more
confidence the past few weeks. Bentley doesn't have great size (299
pounds) but he is bigger than most at his position and the former guard is
used to matching up head-to-head with massive defensive tackles at his
previous position.
If Bentley can use that experience and his impressive lower body strength
to hold his ground against Washington, who is at least 65 pounds bigger
than him, it will give the Saints a huge advantage in the running game. By
controlling Washington without help it would allow OGs Kendyl Jacos and
Montrae Holland to play an active role as second level blockers against
ILBs Harris and Clark. With McAllister's speed and ability to make quick
cutbacks, having two second-level blockers on a consistent basis could
lead to some big gains on the ground for the Saints.
Special Teams
Few organizations in the NFL have better personnel on special teams than
the Saints and Raiders. The Saints have gotten strong lay from their
veteran kickers Mitch Berger (PT) and John Carney (PK). Berger is
averaging 43.9 yards per punt and Carney has connected on 11 of 12 field
goal attempts. However, the Raiders are tough to compete with in terms of
their kicking tandem of Shane Lechler (PT) and Sebastian Janikowski (PK).
Lechler leads the NFL with an average of 49.3 yards per punt and
Janikowski is 9-of-11 on FGAs with a long of 50 yards.
While the Raiders have a sight edge in the kicking game because of the leg
strength of both Janikowski and Lechler, the Saints hold the advantage in
the return game because of the explosiveness of RS Michael Lewis. Lewis is
averaging a respectable 21.3 yards kickoff return, but is a threat to take
one the distance every time he touches the ball, and he has proven that
with his 10.4-yard average per punt return and long-kickoff return of 51
yards. The Raiders are solid with KORs Gabriel and Carlos Francis and PR
Phillip Buchanon, but none of the above is as consistent and threatening
as Lewis.
Prediction: Saints 23, Raiders 20
